Many participants at COP15 (and others around the world) feel convinced that the value of ecosystems – if calculated in the accounting for business and technology – could provide a new metric that would naturally regulate carbon emissions. Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) integrates the use of biodiversity and ecosystem services into an overall strategy to help people adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change. This includes sustainability management, conservation and restoration of ecosystems that provide services that would help people adapt to both current climate variability, and climate change.

Scientific and economic evidence is revealing that it may be less costly to maintain ecosystems and to recognize their value to human activities, rather than try to simulate these important services that nature provides. Conserving and restoring nature so that it functions to provide important services to humankind and other life on Earth is a nature-based action that reduces the dollar commitments of developed countries in combating climate change. For example, it may be cheaper to maintain mangroves than to build a sea wall. It may be cheaper to conserve forests for carbon storage and biodiversity conservation than to cut them down and pay the restoration costs. Activities relating to water supplies, biodiversity, and ecosystem processes all require careful costing of what Mother Nature provides to human health. Case studies presented included the restoration of mountain ecosystems in Colombia, and conservation of mangroves in coastal communities of the Indian Ocean. For example, marine and coastal ecosystems provide livelihoods for 60% of people in Indonesia (plus 145 million who work with ecotourism), home for almost 150 million people, and 50% dietary protein.

“Vulnerable communities across the globe already suffer from climate change’s impacts on agriculture, water availability and quality, ecosystem services, biodiversity, and health. Ecosystem-based adaptation helps people cope with old and new challenges, and, what is more, enables local communities to make their own decisions and benefit from them,” says Ninni Ikkala, IUCN’s Climate Change Coordinator.

For UNFCCC, the importance of ecosystem-based adaptation is recognized at COP15, and will move forward to the decision-making table as part of a broader platform of ethical, economic, and ecological choices.

The UNFCCC meetings (otherwise known at COP15) are held at the Bella Center, just outside of Copenhagen. The public transport is ideal and should be the envy of every American — frequent trains and an excellent bus system connect this conference center with the center of town and all other periphery. The conference center itself is a perfect venue for masses to congregate — security systems, internet, cafes, and meeting rooms abound; and things are incredibly seamless given the unique nature of this once-in-a-lifetime meeting hosted by Denmark. Each day, a Daily Programme is issued highlighting the meetings, the times, the rooms, and the topics. In error, I walked into the special session of the African Group on day 1 — it was fairly obvious that I was not part of their group! In other cases, press conferences come and go in quick succession, so once has to be quick to catch all the activities. But overall, it is an amazing machinery of organized chaos, energy-sensitive activities (for example, water served from coolers not from plastic bottles) and educational displays abounding in all hallways, venues, and central spaces. If the meeting organizers were also in charge of the outcomes, we would be assured of a seamless agreement!

Downtown Copenhagen also exemplifies the mission of COP15. Below is my favorite billboard, illustrating “Hopenhagen” with two young children; ironically, note the McDonald’s advertisement above. And the inflatable image of Earth is part of an educational display to illustrate one ton of carbon emissions.

Billboards in downtown Copenhagen illustrate children linked to climate change

Inflatable image of Earth used to illustrate one ton of carbon emissions

Follow CanopyMeg on Twitter as she attends COP15.

While Ministers mingled and Bureaucrats bungled, the solution to the climate change conundrum was sitting unnoticed just outside the meeting room doors. If we citizens are to take responsibility for our consumption and its impacts on our life support systems by mid century, this can not be a top down solution, rather a bottom up exercise. A modest effort at this by an international NGO may show the way. Earthwatch Institute, has mobilized 100,000 citizens from 50 countries to serve scientists in 100 countries measuring change over time in the earth’s finite biological and cultural assets. Why not each of 200 delegates pledge airfares and/or homestays to mobilize and host a thousand citizens a year for ten years in an Earth Corps to measure the velocity and impacts of climate change? Two million committed citizens all linked by a common pursuit, all connected by email and cell phones, each with a camera to upload and transmit a changing world, each equipped with science insights about the most vulnerable assets on earth, including 500 million coastal poor people, who must hope that the world recognizes their plight. The films, findings, photographs, and documentation of change over time will surely move the Ministers and Lobbyists to dance to a new tune. Copenhagen shall be Hopenhagen for a world of volunteers, an ecumenical calling, uniting one earth in one mission. This must be done. Earthwatch is one of several NGOs with a creative mission that could lead the way to solutions!

Flying through a thick cloud overhanging Copenhagen, I arrived with awe and trepidation to the Bella Center where the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) had convened two days ago. Now underway, the COP15 (as it is affectionately called) is the parent treaty of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol which was ratified by 190 of the UNFCCC parties (or countries). Under Kyoto, countries pledged to stabilize their greenhouse gas concentrations into the atmosphere to levels that will prevent dangerous alterations of our climate system. The Copenhagen meetings have the same goal, and hope to lock countries into emissions limitations and reduction commitments.

Danish Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen opened the meetings by saying, ”It [climate change] does not discriminate, it affects us all. And we are here today because we are all committed to take action. That is our common point of departure – the magnitude of the challenge before us is to translate this political will into a strong political approach.”

The meeting will extend for ten days, with 193 parties working together for the first six days, culminated by a Ministerial High Level Segment for two days starting 16 December and a final session of more than 100 world leaders during December 17-18 (including President Obama). Approximately 15,000 participants were anticipated in Copenhagen, but at least 30,000 are present including representatives from environmental organizations, state and national governments, industry, and research institutions. An estimated 5,000 are media representatives.

The mantra for Copenhagen is the 3 C’s: cooperation, commitment, and consensus. These words were spoken by newly elected COP President and Danish COP 15 Minister Connie Hedegaard. This highly anticipated conference represents a tipping point in which world leaders confront climate change, and attempt to resolve an issue that affects the health and economics of all nations.

Or, why is climate change a global (not local) issue?

For scientists, the challenge of trying to understand the impacts of climate upon the future of life on earth is daunting. Issues such as land use, cloudiness, precipitation, shifts in nutrient distribution, air and water pollution, and our legacy of past disturbance all need to be interwoven into models and predictions.

One significant issue of concern for the future of life on earth concerns the survival of tropical rain forests. This ecosystem houses an estimated half (or more) of the diversity of species inhabiting our planet, so its health is of critical priority. Many tropical species have narrow tolerances for temperature, and also elevation. With climate change, tropical organisms have three options: 1. adapt quickly to rapid changes in their local climate: 2. move locations to find their climate of choice somewhere else; or 3. become extinct. For most species, their ability to locate and then shift to new geographical regions as their local climate changes is doubtful. Some live specifically in certain cloud conditions midway up tropical mountains; some live happily at the tops of equatorial mountains. But, as temperatures continue to rise, the level of cloud cover and moisture shifts upwards. Hence, the mid-elevation species may move up the mountain range for the short-term, but that begs the obvious question — where will the ones at the top go? In theory, they will become extinct.

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) found 28,586 cases of biological shifts of organisms from global warming, but only seven were from tropical ecosystems. In Amazonia, tropical deforestation is increasing due to roads and human clearing activities. Forests rapidly become soybean pastures to supply an increasing American glut for this crop; but few research projects have made scientific predictions as to where these species might shift as their forests degrade and their climate changes.

In the wet tropics of Australia, the golden bowerbird that lives on slopes in montane tropical regions is projected to become extinct if warming increases by as little as 3 degrees centigrade in Queensland which could happen as early as 2050. However, there is not yet any scientific study of latitudinal range shifts in the tropics, mainly because there is very little temperature shift at all in these low elevation tropical rain forests. In contrast, the easiest option for organisms to survive rising temperatures is to move upward on slopes until – but of course – they reach the top of the mountain. Species that live at the tops of mountains will either contract their ranges significantly, or else go extinct.

Queensland currently has had 0.8 degrees Centigrade of warming. The Herbert River ringtail possum is predicted to go extinct with a few degrees of warming. But because the Australian tropics are small (despite their biological importance), they are not broadcast as one of the most “at risk” global regions. In north Queensland, biologists studied the populations of insects, birds, and mammals along the slopes to assess the vulnerability of different species, so they could determine where to allocate the most funding for conservation. The questions they asked were: How sensitive are species to either be resilient or else adapt to changes in climate? And what about possible mitigation? To accurately predict the fate of a species, lemuroid ringtail possums were studied for their current climatic range and the predictions for the future. With two degrees of warming (accompanied by increases in precipitation), the models indicated only one or two sites of survival. With four degrees of warming, total extinction is likely. Temperature warming is only one component of predicted climate change. With higher temperatures will likely come changes in rainfall patterns, differences in monsoon patterns, possible fires, and influx of diseases including fungi, bacteria, molds and insect vectors. And even more complex is the fact that western slopes may have slightly different climates than east-facing slopes, that valleys have different sunlight patterns than mid-elevations that tall trees have different microclimates than young forests, and that even something as subtle as vine cover may alter the climate of the forest floor. So making climate change predictions for the world’s tropical biodiversity ain’t easy.

In the case of tropical epiphytes along the Barva Transect of Costa Rica, tropical biologists modeled that – of a total of 650 species in one local forest – 340 species may disappear from the lowlands and 18 species may disappear altogether at the top of the mountain if temperature increases just a few degrees.

Growth rates of tropical trees are slowing down with warming temperatures, another indication that tropical ecosystems are under increasing stress as our planet warms.

In Mt. Kinabalu, Borneo, moths are moving uphill. Using data from a moth species survey conducted in 1970, biologist I-Ching Chen (working at the world-acclaimed climate change lab of University of York) repeated the same survey in 2008, nearly 40 years later. During this time the temperatures have warmed 0.7 degrees Centigrade. Her results show that the upper boundaries of range of moths have shifted, moving uphill approximately 200 meters for most species.

In Manu National Park in the Peruvian Andes, trees are also shifting. This is also called “species migrations” where species are predicted to move uphill or northward, depending on the available habitat. Ken Feeley has conducted the first study of shifts in a tropical plant species. Trees in plots are being censused every few years along an elevational gradient, so that biologists can determine how trees are surviving at different elevations and temperatures ranging from 8.5 to 23.8 degrees centigrade along the gradient. They hypothesize that trees will migrate upslope approx. 9 meters per year, given increasing temperatures of 0.05 degrees centigrade per year which is what IPCC predicts. They used basal area to indicate survival. Approximately 32 of 37 tree genera or 87% of Andean trees are moving upslope at a rate of 3.5 meters elevation per year, which is less than predicted given the warming temperature changes. This means that some tree species may suffer larger losses of habitat. But, like most climate change models created by scientists, this assumes “perfect” conditions. However, in the Andes, human factors such as cattle grazing and burning will interrupt a tree species’ ability to migrate up the hill, providing what conservation biologists affectionately call a “grass ceiling” or impermeable barrier. Weinmannia spp., for example, may lost approximately 61% of its potential habitat if the tree cannot shift upslope faster than its current rate. Tropical forests are responding to warming temperatures through migrations; but “slow migrations” will result in decreased habitat for many species. And worst of all, human factors may have dire consequences to these upward shifts of tropical forests.

In the north temperate ecosystems, many species are shifting northward, including butterflies, mammals, insects, and even plants. For example, the American pika is quickly disappearing as temperatures rise, causing the disappearance of the climate required for its high-elevation communities.

The data is solid – species around the globe are shifting in response to changing climate. In geological history, this has occurred before and many species adjusted, fluctuated, and adapted. But now a new untested hurdle exists for all biodiversity – can species adjust, fluctuate and adapt given all the human impacts to natural systems? With fragmented forests, polluted waters, and extensive highway grids, can species migrate or shift their ranges and/or their habits given the challenges of navigating the extensive human degradation to the landscape? Perhaps only the most resilient will survive, in which case we can look forward to a world of cockroaches, slim molds, and squid. Or perhaps humans will need to invest in enormous amounts of “biodiversity aid” to the survival of species that contribute to human health. Stay tuned, as humans continue to play Russians roulette with our planet.

From the UNFCCC:

The UN Climate Change Secretariat and the Host Government would like to inform all journalists covering COP 15 of the following:

The maximum capacity of the Bella Center, the venue of the UN Climate Change Conference, is 15,000. More than double that number – 34,000 thousand – have asked to physically attend the meeting. Due to these contraints, NGO delegates will be allowed access to the building according to a quota system that was implemented at the most recent UNFCCC gathering in Barcelona in November. According to this system, only a prearranged percentage of each organistation’s representatives will be allowed access to the building during peak times.

Also due to the space constraints, a maximum of 3500 journalists will be allowed access to the Bella Center at this point in time. This number has already been reached. The situation will be reassessed 9 December. Should there be a possibility to accommodate more journalists, a corresponding notification will be issued that day.

“Destroying a tropical rain forest and other species-rich ecosystems for profit is like burning all the paintings of the Louvre to cook dinner.” EO Wilson

REDD is pronounced just like the color in the American flag, and similarly, it may represent the next big patriotic symbol. Most Americans hope to leave the legacy of a high quality of life for their children and grandchildren (as did our parents and grandparents); REDD contributes directly to that aspiration. REDD is also the new buzz word circulating among international policy and conservation circles. It stands for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation. At the international level, REDD is central to discussions at COP15, also known as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Copenhagen, Denmark. Within the United States, the House of Representatives has passed a climate and energy bill that included a REDD component. And the Senate will soon be voting on similar measures. For many developing countries who have not yet sold the logging rights to their tropical forests, REDD represents a unique rescue plan that takes both conservation and economics into consideration. But REDD still has many unresolved components, which will likely cause lively dialogue in Copenhagen.

Currently, tropical deforestation contributes over 15% of global carbon emissions, because the burning and clearing of forests contribute enormous amounts of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Not only does deforestation contribute to the warming of our planet, but the loss of these forests eliminates significant amounts of “natural capital” for future generations. International policies to conserve forests represent patriotic actions that benefit the next generation, and also offer a win/win scenario to both developed and developing countries.

What is REDD and how can citizens support it? REDD represents a policy that will essentially pay countries to conserve their forests. Currently, the forests of Madagascar, New Guinea, Peru, Brazil and many others have the potential to provide important short-term livelihoods to their citizens through selling timber and clearing for agriculture. However, these forests provide an important service to people beyond the borders of their home country. In the process of photosynthesis, trees (especially tropical forests) absorb large amounts of carbon dioxide from our atmosphere, and then release oxygen while storing the carbon as trunks and root material. Carbon storage by forests is called an “ecosystem service,” meaning that the trees provide a benefit to humankind through their natural metabolism. These important functions are worth billions of dollars, and include such services as oxygen production, soil erosion control, fresh water storage, homes for biodiversity, and sources of medicine, foods, and building materials. Because carbon storage by trees slows the warming of our atmosphere, this ecosystem service buffers us from weather extremes such as floods and hurricanes, thereby saving money and lives. Old-growth (or primary) forests tend to store more carbon than young plantations. But most primary forests in developed countries such as America, Australia and Europe have been cut down. On the other hand, developing countries such as New Guinea and Peru still have vast expanses of original forests that are extremely valuable in terms of providing ecosystem services to the entire planet. By paying these countries to conserve their forests, the REDD policy offers an important bargaining chip for international climate change negotiations . REDD also upholds environmental justice: it offers compensation to indigenous peoples who will safeguard their forest resources for the long-term benefit of the entire planet instead of selling them for logs or soybean plantations.

But REDD is not easy to enforce. Who will insure that these forests remain intact, and who will police the payments from developed countries to developing countries? Such issues create complex negotiations at the international level. But with each year of delay, more of the world’s carbon storage capacity (i.e. tropical forests) is cut down. The implementation of REDD represents important first-steps to establish economic values for irreplaceable natural resources such as long-lived trees.

Will the twenty-first century be looked upon in history books as the crisis era, whereby global emissions become irreversible? Will global initiatives such as REDD serve as a catalyst for living sustainably? With the increasing incidence of climatic extremes, businesses are beginning to include nature’s services in their accounting ledgers. Forests not only represent carbon storage but they also provide flood control and biodiversity libraries, benefits that offset insurance and health costs. In short, forests are worth more alive than dead.

In almost one week, the United Nations Framework on Climate Change Convention opens in Copenhagen, Denmark. Abbreviated as UNFCCC or COP15 (which stands for Council of Parties, now in its 15th year), these meetings are highly anticipated by governments, industry, scientists, and citizens worldwide. I am humbled and honored to have a Press Pass from the New York Times to attend these meetings, and report back to their regional Florida paper, the Sarasota Herald Tribune. With Twitter, Facebook, and blogging, I hope to share the announcements, findings, side events, and diverse groups represented in Copenhagen. From the Girl Scouts to Environmental Defense, from Harvard University to the government of Papua New Guinea, voices around the world will speak out about climate change, in hopes of influencing future policies. I will also be reporting scientific information directly to our Florida cabinet, in my role as climate change adviser to our state CFO, Alex Sink.

My first assignment for COP15 was attendance at a Press Briefing in Bonn, Germany on November 25 …. via internet! At this introductory session, it was made clear that there is no Plan B for failure at Copenhagen, only Plan A (and A stands for Action). It is also clear from the scientific record that unseasonable climatic conditions are already stressing many developing countries and resulting in tragic loss of human life. Droughts in Africa, storm surges flooding Pacific Islands, and monsoons accompanied by flood damage along the coasts of Asia are threatening millions of citizens. Is climate change a consequence of human activities? The scientific consensus is a strong YES. But regardless of anyone’s opinion about the answer to that question, all global leaders agree on three issues:

1. More people are currently at risk (as compared to the past) from climatic extremes;
2. Our already- declining, finite supplies of some natural resources (e.g. forests, coral reefs, mangroves, etc.) are in danger of disappearing, if international agreements are not reached; and
3. The meetings in Copenhagen require strong initiatives, goals, and cooperation.

The outcome of these meetings needs to prioritize safe, low-emissions growth for all developing countries; and new, clean-energy technologies for developed countries. Poor nations are currently at risk due a history of high levels of consumption and carbon dioxide emissions from developed countries. For most international leaders, this poses an ethical dilemma that requires immediate attention. In fact, most leaders agree that it is overdue for urgent action to reduce global carbon dioxide emissions and moderate extreme climatic events.

What will define success for COP15? Industrialized countries need to declare strict targets by pledging immediate emissions cuts by 2020, thereby averting more serious climatic extremes. (Russia recently pledged to reduce its emissions by 22-25% over 1990 levels which is an exciting, recent announcement.) Second, developing countries need to define their goals more clearly. For example, Brazil has pledged to reduce emissions by 36-39% from current levels, and South Korea by 30%. These announcements are truly exemplary. Third, clarity on the finance to support developing countries is critical to the UNFCCC agenda; wealthy countries need to fund the reduction of carbon emissions and/or pay credits for their history of excessive emissions. And fourth, international agreement on how such funds will be deployed and how emissions will be monitored is a final priority for the agenda. All of these actions require international cooperation. Scientists and policy-makers agree that the destruction of forests, the melting of glaciers, and the expansion of infectious diseases are suicidal for humankind. So, all countries anticipate a spirit of cooperation and creativity to succeed in Copenhagen.

If there is no success at COP15, then the future is certainly jeopardized for our children. The stakes are high. Creating international standards to insure clean air, water, and sustainable use of resources for the next generation is critical, with our global population predicted to reach 8 billion over the next two decades.

So, watch for developments about the Copenhagen meetings on the Herald-Tribune Blog, CanopyMeg Blog, Twitter (canopymeg), Facebook (Meg Lowman). I will be doing my utmost to keep our community informed about COP15.

From Orlando Business Journal:

Florida’s treasury investment managers will be required to detail their abilities to assess climate risk, under a directive from Alex Sink, the state’s chief financial officer.

Florida is the first state treasury in the United States to require investment fund managers to make such disclosures, according to a release from Sink’s office.

Under the new directive, investment managers will be required to report on climate risk as part of their semi-annual reviews. Some managers have begun planning for the potential impacts of climate risk in their portfolios, while others have more work to do and need guidance on how to assess potential climate-related financial risks when making investment decisions, the release says.

The goal is to safeguard tax dollars from the risks posed by climate change and to encourage companies to capture opportunities related to the changing climate, says Sink, who oversees the state Department of Financial Services, the state’s $20 billion in Treasury funds and serves on the board of the Florida pension fund, which has $140 billion in assets.

Sink also said she is exploring the creation of a clean energy fund in Florida. Eighteen other states have created similar funds, which invest in renewable clean energy resources, such as solar, wind and biomass, the release said.

Additionally, Sink appointed Margaret Lowman, director of environmental initiatives at New College of Florida in Sarasota, as her science adviser on matters related to climate change.

Another article: State CFO details climate change initiatives

Quote from Dr. Lowman:

“I am honored to contribute my 30 years’ experience in professional science to serve as Science Advisor for Alex Sink, our state Chief Financial Officer. Florida – now more than ever – needs both science and economics at the table to map Florida’s future. As we face challenges such as climate change, water conservation, and obtaining clean energy, I hope that the integration of science, economics and policy will insure a healthy and prosperous Florida for our children.” [Meg Lowman, 13 Nov 2007]

A conversation with Dr. Meg Lowman regarding climate change is in the Fall 2007 issue of Bay Soundings.

You can read the PDF of the article here:
Climate Change & Florida’s Future – A conversation with Dr. Meg Lowman