Midway point at COP15

Saturday, December 12 marks the halfway point for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change meetings (UNFCCC) in Copenhagen, Denmark. At the COP working meetings this morning, the representative from Tuvalu tearfully commented to the President of COP, “Our future is in your hands, Madame President.” He was referring to the fact that his island nation is only a maximum of two meters (approximately six feet) above sea level, and will be one of the first nations required to re-locate in the next few decades with rising sea level. He reflected on the fact that deliberations of a few United States senators were postponing the fate of his citizens, and pleaded for a commitment of action by COP15 by the end of next week.

The COP15 meeting resonates with strong divisional voices — the LDCs (least developed countries), AOSIS (association of small island states), eu (the European Union), the emerging BRIC group (Brazil, Russian, India, China), and the most influential voice which is that of developed countries. Many of these divisional groups hold closed sessions, with the goal of developing one draft proposal representing a united voice. In addition to these governmental groups, there are myriad NGOs (non-governmental groups) that have created lose ties based on common issues: REDD (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation), sea level rise, food security, youth for climate change, and other diverse issues represented by groups linked through on a common cause.

One of the emerging challenges appears to be the United States versus China, each advocating different metrics and pledges for carbon emissions reductions and each essentially hoping the other country will “go first.” This apparent impasse is the subject of many discussions among developing and emerging countries, who recognize the need for these super-powers to align themselves before an agreement will be meaningful. Consequently, despite the aura of optimism, there is a sense of frustration and hand-wringing at this mid-way juncture. It is hoped that draft documentation is getting closer to a serious compromise, and it is also hoped that different voices will align more closely with a shared pledge of reducing carbon emissions. All of this hopefulness has led to the slogan for the UNFCCC meetings, “Hopenhagen.”

Approximately six undercurrents that give rise to different points of view with regard to solutions for climate change at the Copenhagen meetings. First, rich versus poor nations are grappling with who should pay whom for what — an ultimately ethical issue about who has eaten more of the proverbial energy pie. Second, developed versus developing economies such as USA versus China have different perspectives that require resolution. Third, island and coastal nations are battling the timeline and lobbying for immediate action. Fourth oil-producing nations have different priorities from proponents of clean technologies. Fifth, carbon tax versus carbon trade all face trade-offs in their advocacy roles. And finally, there is the less defined role of emergency actions versus the “wait for political will” anxiety that pervades different groups present at COP15.

As the meetings enter their last week of talks, drafts, and data, the tension and excitement is building. The conference venue holds approximately 15,000 people and registrants have already exceeded 30,000 — hence, the morning commute for many NGO and media personnel involves waiting outside for careful scrutiny of credentials and head-counts. This morning, the line moved fairly quickly, with approximately a half-hour wait to gain entry to the conference center. In addition, the lines for the COP working group meetings are also long — NGOs waited for up to an hour to gain admission, while the Media did not have any wait for entry. So, the population dynamics of the meetings itself are nearly as complex as the climate change diplomacy itself, with predictions that the arrival of leaders from many countries next Thursday and Friday will truly stress the organizers and require extreme measures to retain order and efficiency. President Obama and other American delegates are scheduled to arrive on December 17. It is hoped that there will be a final draft of a climate change agreement for him to discuss by this date.