Cancun Underwater?

There is one important difference between ecology and many other fascinating sciences and games: unsolved problems of chess, astronomy, or mathematics will not change if we ignore them. Our activity or lack of activity can alter the state of ecology. [Lawrence Slobodkin, 2003 in A Citizen’s Guide to Ecology]

From November 29 to December 10, delegates from approximately 194 countries are meeting in Cancun, Mexico, attempting to produce a climate agreement. It is ironic that this location was underwater during Earth’s last warming period just over 100,000 years ago. And even more amazing is the fact that the entire Cancun coastline at that time was swamped by an 8 foot sea-level rise which occurred in only a few decades of relatively rapid warming. Will history repeat itself? Or will our governments agree on an international plan to reduce carbon emissions as a means of addressing global warming?

Last year, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), was held in Copenhagen, with a mission to cut greenhouse gases by 50 percent by the year 2050. That conference failed to achieve any consensus on a legally binding treaty. This year’s meeting, (chronologically referred to as COP 16), is expected to attract about half the attendees, in part due to the disappointment of not achieving any outcomes at COP 15 in Copenhagen. Many are wondering if the methodology of bringing together 194 countries is sound; can such a large and diverse group achieve consensus? This year, the sights have been lowered, and most countries hope to focus on pieces of the bigger framework, including REDD (reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation), “climate finance” which involves money administered to poor countries to combat early signs of climate change, and how to structure the economics of funding forest conservation as important carbon storage systems. Most delegates feel that Cancun could serve to restore confidence in the UNFCCC process, and hopefully an overall action plan will be more likely in South Africa in 2011, or at the Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit in 2012.

According to almost all scientific models, the time is running out to reverse our planet’s warming trends. Some of the most serious changes recorded in the past few decades of climate change monitoring include increased acidification of our oceans, significant melting of Arctic and Greenland ice, and accelerating sea level rise along coastlines. These phenomena are not easily reversed. Although the earth has been warm before in its geological past, millions of human beings were not living in valuable real estate along coastlines or concentrated in large urban areas that tend to act as heat islands.

The international panel of scientists who evaluate climate change, otherwise known as the IPCC, is also scrambling to revise and refine their communication about their results. One serious issue for this panel is how to translate the term “uncertainty” to policy-makers, to the public, and also to the scientific community. Similar to warfare, when governments need to predict the likelihood of military invasions, the IPCC uses a vocabulary of terms that estimate probability. But these terms are not necessarily translated with any mathematical certainty by the media. For example, their term “very likely” means a greater than 90% chance of happening; but to the average layperson, “very likely” sounds pretty vague. And when “very likely” is written up by a sensational tabloid article, its meaning may change altogether. The inclusion of more precise language is on the drawing board, as the IPCC reviews its own process, and attempts to improve its science communication skills. Otherwise, the continued uncertainty of the jargon may continue to cloud the certainty of our changing climate. And our great grand-children will someday wonder why we never understood the significance of the science.

Meg Lowman, longtime Florida scientist/educator, is now establishing the nationally acclaimed Nature Research Center at the North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences, with its mission “to engage the public.” Her column appears monthly in the Sarasota Herald-Tribune (RSS).